New Kosova Report

Twelve answers to arguments against independence

Thursday, 29 November 2007

Graffiti in Prishtina

There have been several arguments against Kosovo independence. Most of them were initially heard in Belgrade and then spread to the capitals or the media that are against Kosovo independence.

Let’s consider twelve of them one by one.

Independence will only make matters worse

Kosovo has been de facto independent from Serbia in the last eight years. Initially independence will most probably not be qualitatively different from what Kosovo already is experiencing. Kosovo economy has been stagnating and the standard of living decreasing, which can only mean trouble for the future. We can’t afford not to try.

Kosovo won’t be able to be independent financially anyways

Kosovo will need serious financial assistance for the foreseeable future. However, foreign aid has progressively been reduced and Kosovo budget is picking up the slack. Kosovo needs a clear legal status and reduction of the perceived risk to attract investors, and the ability of the government to borrow for capital projects. All of those can’t be done in the current state of limbo.

UN Resolution(s) on Kosovo will be breached

This is a tricky question worthy of an international law doctorate thesis. UN Resolution 1244 that set up the current system in Kosovo states that:

Agreement should be reached […] to move towards a Resolution of the Kosovo crisis […] taking full account of the Rambouillet accords and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

Paragraph 8.I.c of the Rambuillet accords states:

Three years after the entry into force of this Agreement, an international meeting shall be convened to determine a mechanism for a final settlement for Kosovo, on the basis of the will of the people, opinions of relevant authorities, each Party’s efforts regarding the implementation of this Agreement, and the Helsinki Final Act, and to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the implementation of this Agreement and to consider proposals by any Party for additional measures.

Clearly both documents contradict themselves. While they both recognize the territorial integrity and affirm the Helsinki Final Act, both of which had previously been broken during the violent breakup of the Tito’s Yugoslavia, Rambuillet and indirectly UN Resolution 1244 support the will of the people. What is important though is that none of the two texts mention the legal relationship that Serbia imposed forcefully over Kosovo in 1989. Until then, Kosovo shared sovereignty with Serbia and Yugoslavia, the last of which did break up.

Independence will be unilateral

Serbia has been careful to specify that it is the declaration that will be unilateral, aka UDI. Both the government of Kosovo and Kosovars realized that the declaration is worthless if it’s not recognized by the major European powers and the United States. Ultimately we will instead end up with something closer to a well coordinated declaration of independent aka WCDI (just made up the acronym). So while the declaration will be unilateral, there is no doubt that the long process of Kosovo taking on the obligations that derive from such a declaration will be multilateral.

Albanians in Macedonia will want to join their brothers in Kosovo.

This mostly comes from Serbia, and once in a while from Greece. The funny part is that while Macedonia strongly supports independence and has announced it will be one of the first countries to recognize it, Serbia thinks Macedonia is in danger. Who should we trust to know better the interests of Macedonia, Belgrade, Athens or Skopje?

Serbs in Bosnia will want to do the same

They will do so only with the encouragement of Belgrade. This is simply Belgrade’s way to get at the West. However, Kosovo and Republika Srpska of Bosnia are two different animals. The most important distinction being that Republika Srpska was created though ethnic cleansing and genocide while Kosovo underwent ethnic cleansing and its people were attempted genocide by the country that now wants to rule them.

Kosovo Serbs will not trust Albanians and will leave

These threats are largely anecdotal and have subsided in the recent months. More importantly, they have come from Belgrade who is willing to make a statement at any cost. Kosovo Serbs know that Serbia will not welcome them and they will end up like the thousands of their brothers and sisters safe but undesirable in Serbia’s refugee camps. Once again, barring a small risk of vengeful violence that might be initiated by Serbia, the day after will not be much different for any of the parties concerned.

Serbia will reject democracy and turn bitter

We heard the same kind of fear mongering before Montenegro parted ways. Bad scenarios never happened. The transition should be even easier in the case of Kosovo considering that Serbia and Kosovo have already been separate in the last eight years. How will the life of a Serb in Nis be different the morning after Kosovo independence? The truth is that for most Serbs Kosovo is just an emotional figment. They have never been there and probably never will be in Kosovo.

More importantly, there is no threat to democracy in Serbia. Nobody so far has warned of any forceful takeover of government in Belgrade. True, Radicals might win the elections, but democracy is safe and sound. Where a lot of Western observers are confused or simply they doesn’t want to say is that democracy is not a synonym for a pro-Western government with an open economy. People of Serbia might choose the opposite of the last two democratically as well. Besides, does anyone think that the Kosovars should be made to suffer because of different electoral scenarios that might develop in Serbia? It’s morally abhorrent to ask this of Kosovars.

Serb leaders have been quite successful in laying the responsibility for the political and development path that Serbia chooses on the door of Europe. It’s about time that Brussels starts explaining that first and foremost, it is Serbia and the Serbian people that will suffer the consequences from the democratic choices that the Serbian people make. While Serbia remains a key piece of the Balkan puzzle, it is no more able to cause wars. Europe must stop pretending that we all can’t work around Serbia if need be.

Fifty other regions in Africa and the Caucasus will follow Kosovo

That is strictly dependable on the great powers. An important component of the Kosovo independence is the will of most of the great powers to support it. What other aspiring breakaway region has the same kind of support? No other region will be able to follow Kosovo if a considerable mass of countries are not willing to recognize it.

Western policy is inconsistent: why don’t Kurds get their own state?

Failure to do the right thing in one case doesn't imply that doing it the next time is wrong.

Prishtina does not want to negotiate because they have already been promised independence

That is true to a certain point. Belgrade does not want to even consider independence while Prishtina assumes independence is non-negotiable. Prishtina has already made some tough concessions while Ahtisaari was heading the negotiations, which means that now they are at a point where they don't have anymore ground to give up. Timewise, we are approaching the third anniversary of negotiations while Kosovo waits in limbo – how much more is there to talk?

Serbia is offering Kosovars a “unique partnership” involving self-rule under a “common sovereign roof”, and they should accept it

Kosovo is offering Serbia another similarly unique partnership under the roof of the European Union. We just do not trust Serbia anymore. For practical reasons (as in life and death), the kind of line we draw on the map is very important for Kosovars. In practice most of the things will be similar to what Serbia is offering.

The author can be reached at arianit at newkosovareport dot com