"Independence due before May" are the words of Kosovo Unity Team spokesman that brings the hopes up for the Kosovo Albanians. However, these words give rise to an intimidating feeling for the Kosovo Serb minorities that have segregated themselves into enclaves for the past 8 years of the UN administration in Kosovo.
There are some crucial parts of the jigsaw missing though!
Why are the Kosovo Serbs considering fleeing when they are aware that their presence in Serbia is not welcome, furthermore, when they are certain that they will get nothing more than being treated like "shiptari" – a derogatory phrase used by Serbs when referring to Albanians. It is very evident that the influx of Serb refugees fleeing to Serbia in 1999 has been an expensive bill to pay for the Serbian Government. Thus, Kosovo Serbs in the refugee camps in Serbia are living a poor life under extremely low living standards. In addition, the whole paradigm that they are just refugees and nothing more is a social insult to live with.
This is where Belgrade politics has played a key role in dominating over Kosovo Serbs living both in Serbia and Kosovo. It has been eight years since Belgrade has been enticing Kosovo Serbs in Kosovo enclaves to show their passivism when it comes to the political scene, elections and other events organised in Kosovo. The Kosovo Serbs have served as a tool to Belgrade to block every progress made in Kosovo, in this way driving a point home and trying to show the discrimination against Serbs exercised by Albanians. Regardless on how politics in Kosovo evolves, some Kosovo Serbs in refugee camps believe that it is better remaining a refugee in Serbia rather than live in Kosovo under the threat of Albanians, whereas the others are simply fed up by the deadlocked process and want to move on by returning to their homes in Kosovo believing that the Ahtisaari Plan will ensure their welfare.
One should not perceive Kosovo's independence as the victory of Albanians and a failure for Serbs. The foundations of this plan give Kosovo a 'supervised independence' where the Kosovo Serbs have their own rights in all aspects of life and ensures protection for the Serb monuments in Kosovo. Moreover, the Ahtisaari Plan has the EU and the US backing on Kosovo's future status.
Let us now flip the coin and analyse the Albanian view on this matter. Kosovo Albanians unanimously agree that Kosovo must secede from Serbia and they believe this is the only way to prevent the repetition of 1998-99 savages. They have reiterated in several occasions that negotiations can proceed on anything else but independence. However, if the Kosovo politicians rush to declare Kosovo's independence unilaterally without the EU and the US coordination they will be putting Kosovo in an displeasing position. This could imply some kind of isolation from the West and will certainly affect the state of the stagnant economy in this deprived area of former Yugoslavia. However, it should be pointed out that the Kosovo politicians have accepted the Ahtisaari Plan which is based on the grounds of a multi-ethnic society and co-existence. It must be mentioned that at this stage, Kosovo is not ready to lead itself and gain full independence; furthermore, this would indicate insecurity for Kosovo Serbs.
The truth is that with a supervised independence by the EU, not only will the peace in Kosovo retain, but also Kosovo will be preparing itself towards its strenuous path to the EU membership in the future.
On the other hand, things become extremely complicated when the Northern Kosovo is concerned. The area has been populated only by Kosovo Serbs since the end of the war in 1999 and the River Ibar Bridge has been one of the most volatile spots in Kosovo. For Kosovo Albanians the North should remain an integral part of Kosovo whereas Serbs claim that if Kosovo can secede from Serbia mainly because majority wants independence then why can't Northern Kosovo secede from Kosovo when the majority is against embracing an independent Kosovo? However, chopping the North of Kosovo is not acceptable for Albanians who know that the heart of Kosovo is the North mainly because the area is rich on lignite and coal. But the most important detail should not be ruled out, that is, according to Ahtisaari plan there should be no change in the borders of Kosovo.
The friction between Serbia and the Western powers is not likely to come to a halt. Furthermore, Serbia is determined is to keep Kosovo at any cost. But, is Serbia aware of the sky scraping barriers it will create towards its future if it decided going through the so-called "punishing" process of the EU member states that recognise and independent Kosovo? Given that the only economic survival for Serbia is the EU membership, any move that would agitate the West would mean a recipe for disaster in Serbia's case.
Throughout this complex mathematical equation there is one straightforward step, that is, last Monday Kosovo passed a blind corner moving towards a one way path. Now that it is clear that independence is on its way, this flashpoint of Europe is de facto on the brink and considering the high volatility of the region, the EU, the US and NATO should be prepared for any case scenario that might mutate in the coming months.
Kreshnik Hoxha, East Riding of Yorkshire
