Ed Alexander

The election result is almost of a secondary consequence since it was always clear that Boris Tadic had it sewn up from the outset. Whilst Tomislav Nikolic won the first round of votes this counts for very little, certainly less than when Jean-Marie Le Pen came second in the first round of the 2002 French Presidential Election. Serbia's more nationalist inclined voters came to the polls for the first round, more so than Tadic's supporters who were well aware that he would never finish third despite their relative ambivalence Despite ending the 20th January vote in second place he nevertheless polled nearly five times as many votes as charismatic third place Velimir Ilic, who could only take 7.43% of the vote. The second round was a different matter and Tadic's supporters along with other Serbs fearful that the Nikolic-Seselj Reich in the making would obliterate any perceived progress made by Tadic's government came out of the woodwork to vote. The final count gave Tadic 51.61%, with 2,292,650 votes, and Nikolic 47.69%, 2,178,014 votes. Worryingly, given the unambiguous concerns which exist around Nikolic's Serbian Radical Party, whilst Tadic was the eventual winner he only managed to come out on top by 3.92%, or more damningly by only 114,636 ballots in a country with a population of over 10,000,000. To return to the comparison with the 2002 French election, Jacques Chirac managed to poll over 82% of the votes cast in the second round while Le Pen could woefully manage less that 18%.

Indeed, the Western media has portrayed the 2008 election as a battle of two worlds: European integration versus isolation, West versus East, development versus retardation, good versus evil and so on and so forth. Quite condescendingly on the part of the Western media, Tadic has been described as Serbian's Pro-European politician who will deliver European prosperity to the poor Serbian people while Nikolic is described as a rabid nationalist intent on an aggressive foreign policy which would rely upon links to Moscow that exist through primitive religious similarities and Slavic ignorance. Clearly the situation is in no way quite so black and white.

For starters, Tadic is in no way a Europhile and is by Western standards a nationalist through-and-through. His campaign motto was "For a strong and stable Serbia", presumably through forging closer links to the European Union, and he regularly spoke about seeing Serbia as an integral part of Europe, but it was here that the charade that had been so appealing to the Western press who had wanted to live in an immature polarized world of good and bad guys ended. Tadic's pro-Western credentials were no doubt aided by his opposition, Nikolic emerging from a murky spawn of xenophobic criminals, and as such, if we are to actually look at Tadic's results and policies then it is hardly cause for celebration. During his first term in power, which began in 2004, Tadic failed to address many of the problems surrounding his homeland. It would be wrong to say that he is solely responsible for these inadequacies, but as President of a country the buck eventually stops with you. Tadic has shown no signs of making the necessary concessions towards Kosova which would undoubtedly provide the "stability" which he promises in his campaigns. Furthermore, he failed wholeheartedly to honour agreements made concerning the apprehension and extradition of wanted war criminals, a deficiency which hardly sits comfortably with the European ideals he is cultivating around his cult of personality. Defining himself as a serious world statesman, Tadic has managed to foster better relations with neighbouring countries, though this too seems quite superficial when we consider how genuine humanitarian issues still linger in the background over a decade after the end of conflicts with Croatia and Bosnia.

The character of Nikolic is grotesque, comic and tragic. Serving as leader of the Serbian Radical Party whilst his sugar-daddy Vojislav Seselj, one of recent history's greatest criminals, awaits the outcome of his trial in The Hague for Crimes Against Humanity. Like Seselj, Nikolic is also of rank in the Cetnik movement, a fact which would be quaint were in not to conjure up the despicable images of loutish thugs running on a murderous riot through the streets of places like Vukovar, Vocin, Visegrad, Gacko and Foca. If we are to judge Nikolic by the company he keeps it would also be wise to note that apart from his close friendship to Seselj he also served as a minister under Slobodan Milosevic during the aggression against Kosova. Nikolic's ideas are unashamedly ridiculous, one particular example being his trip in early 2007 to Belarus, a country which itself has an abysmal human rights record. He advocated the creation of a Russia-Belarus-Serbia superstate to challenge the existing European and American powerbases. This idea had already been mentioned by Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the Russians suitably rebuffed it since they enjoy it when their satellites antagonise the West but never enter into a union with unpredictable partners who are the dregs of the international community. If a President of a UN member state can not come close to convincing the Russians then did Nikolic, the second-man in a notoriously racist opposition party in the deepest darkest Balkans, really believe he could hold sway over Tsar Putin? One other claim which is particularly frightening and emerged from within Serbia against Nikolic was that he had actually participated in Crimes Against Humanity on the ground in and around the Slavonian village of Antin. Natasa Kandic, the world renowned human rights activist who has twice been celebrated by TIME magazine claims to have irrefutable proof of Nikolic’s guilt and the man in question has never given satisfactory answers concerning this issue. Whether there is truth to this or whether it was purely meant to tarnish Nikolic's reputation further remains to be seen. Needless to say though, had such accusations been made against a politician in a Western country, David Cameron or Segolene Royal for example, rightfully or wrongly, their political career would be effectively over in a flash.

Sadly, some people did vote for Nikolic because they believe strongly in the rhetoric that he and Seselj spout. For all of those who believe in a united and liberal Europe, the home of what has become known as European ideals and principles, there has to hopefully be other reasons why some chose to vote for a man with such a disreputable reputation. As was the case with Le Pen, some would have made the decision that a vote for Nikolic was a protest vote against a whole host of issues ranging from what they view as the Western desire to illegally remove Kosova from Serbia to a broader mistrust of the ongoing marginalisation of their country at the hands of European-American homogenisation. To what extent this was the case is still unclear though and is debatable given that most Serbs who are fed up with the political merry-go-round simply stayed at home and didn't bother to vote for anyone. At this point the weight of responsibility for the future must return to Tadic since whilst he succeeded this time he, and the pro-Western ideals that he trumpets, might not be so lucky next time around unless he attains credible and tangible results starting now.

Apart from Boris Tadic, Serbia's other contemporary international politician of note is Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica. This was the man who was welcomed in as a democratic successor to Slobodan Milosevic. Evidently, given that no war has been started in the name of Greater Serbia since Kostunica's accession to the top rungs of power, he is a relatively welcome addition in place of Milosevic. Having said this, those of us who watched the events of 5th October 2000 with an innocent, child-like hope that Serbia was to be revolutionised and that Kostunica would lead the nation on a wind of democracy have been left feeling slightly disillusioned. Following the sins of Milosevic, a clear pragmatist who lusted for personal power, Serbia was given Kostunica, a nationalist with whom it seems that the West are having only a marginally more functioning relationship. Possibly in an attempt to cement his domestic support, the most pressing concern for all insecure politicians, Kostunica has regularly thrown out hard line sound bites concerning Kosova, such as his critical dismissal of an impeding accord with the European Union in which he said the organisation had "directly undermined the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Serbia and its constitutional order". One can criticize Europe all they like, but maybe Kostunica should explain where he wishes to take Serbia were the country to turn their back on the EU: back to Kosovo Polje maybe? It seems all too easy for Serb politicians to hijack the emotions of the country's masses, making reference to sovereignty and the integrity of territory since this will win a few grunts of support in Belgrade's bars and coffee shops without taking on the more honourable and challenging task of addressing issues which still remain as a legacy of the country's acts of aggression during the 1990s.

While Tadic needs to court an international audience as a pro-European politician, whilst not alienating his nationalist domestic audience, is it not fair to ask whether these two expressions which emanate from the same face make him a man whose hands are tied because he can't afford to upset either of his suitors? To put this in context, Tadic is not a psychopath in the mould of Milosevic or Seselj, instead he is the lesser of two evils when compared to Nikolic. The last great Western orientated Serbian politician was Zoran Dindic, a man who was willing to make the hardest decisions that were best for his country, even if it lead to his own untimely death. Even the briefest of surveys shows that Tadic will never live up to the legacy of Dindic, and more worryingly, there does not appear to be anyone who can fulfill this essential role for the Serbian nation.

Ed Alexander is an award winning blogger of Balkan politics, culture and soccer. He is based in London and Zagreb, Croatia.

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