 Ed Alexander Kosovo’s declaration of independence has meant that a state of uncertainty has returned to the region, emphatically symbolised by 1,000 Serbs running amok at border points between the Montenegro and the newly independent republic, one of which was burned to the ground as police could only stand by and look on helplessly. However, one should not be drawn into the unfounded belief that this is the formative times of another Western-stylised Balkan apocalypse, but nevertheless, serious questions must be asked as to how the government of the Republic of Kosovo plans to interact with its militantly inclined Serbian minority.
One option would be for the Kosovars to ignore the violent acts of the Serbs and instead try to curry favour with the community by hurriedly bringing them into the heart of the country’s political apparatus. In doing so, in cooperation with Western sponsorship, it might be possible for the apron-ties to be cut between Belgrade and the Kosovo Serbs, a tactic which has its heart in the right place but could equally be crudely called “divide and conquer” by cynics. This will not be an easy task for any of the Kosovars, Serbs or Western power brokers. Potential comparisons might be drawn with Croatia, a country which gained independence from Serbian dominated Yugoslavia and fought a bloody war against insurrectionist Serbs who were being backed by Belgrade. Recognised as an independent state in 1992, Croatia’s first minister of Serbian ethnicity was appointed in 2008, which although a certain sign of integration and recognition it has taken sixteen years to be achieved. With pressure from the European Union and the United States it can be hoped that the process will be coerced and pushed so that the Kosovo government will be multi-ethnic in a far shorter time span, but how effectively different parties will be at working productively with each other remains to be seen.
Whilst Serbs have been the loudest in their rejection of Kosovo’s independence it should not be forgot that Kosovo is not a bi-ethnic country but rather a multi-ethnic one. Kosovo has been characterised as a country of Albanians and Serbs but it should be noted that Bosniak, Romani and Turkish populations can be counted in the tens of thousands across the whole territory as well as the reclusive Gorani people who inhabit 18 villages around Prizren. Without being ignorant of Serbian needs, it is essential not to allow the most vocal protesters to hijack the question of ethnic integration entirely for themselves. The disregard shown to the Roma of Kosovo, and other neighbouring countries too, is a blemish that would go a long way to negating any purported progress in the field human rights that have been made if only there was someone to voice the all too apparent abuses that exist.
Some European Union countries have been reluctant to recognise Kosovo’s independence, but it appears that gradually their opposition will fall one by one until with legitimate and understandable concerns only Cyprus remains. Somewhat amusingly it can be noted that the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus does recognise Kosovo and has offered President Thaci the congratulations of its people. Since the Sino-Albanian split of 1978, China’s influence in the Balkans is minimal apart from state run arms producer Norinco selling weapons to most sides during times of conflict, and it might also be argued that their reluctance to accept Kosovo’s statehood could be because of ramifications concerning Taiwan. Similarly, Russia, marketed as Serbia’s Orthodox brother is in fact only taking a stand against the Kosovars because of its own domestic fears relating to want-away regions like Ingushetia. A survey of comments made by the world’s unrecognised states, ranging all the way from the picturesque log cabins of Quebec to skeletal ruins of Chechnya shows waves of support for Kosovo, with the exception of the confused Transdnistrians who can’t quite work out where they should stand given that their existence is only guaranteed by Russia’s protectorate.
Ultimately, whilst it may be an overused cliché, only time will tell what the future will hold. If Kosovo’s Albanian dominated government can heed the demands and sincere advice of their international backers and truly create a democratic state then they have nothing to fear. The Serbian question needs an immediate response, since although their aging population will gradually decrease in the coming decades that does not solve the very real problems of the moment. Kosovo has received it’s deserved and overdue reward and now is the time, for the sake not just of the Serbs but also the Kosovars and other ethnicities too, for a show goodwill to be made to the inhabitants of northern Mitrovica. This could maybe be in the form of a position within government for example so that Serbs feel that they genuinely can play a part in shaping the new country even if it is dominated by around 90% ethnic Albanians. From the international perspective, tension between the United States and Europe on one side and Russia on the other means that the West will do all it can to support their little Kosovar baby since nobody will want to here Moscow say “We told you so”, but a child must nevertheless learn to walk for itself at some point. For Kosovo that point has now come.
Ed Alexander is an award winning blogger of Balkan politics, culture and soccer. He is based in London and Zagreb, Croatia.
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