European Union

S

unday’s elections in Serbia proved that the citizens of Serbia agree; there is no real alternative other than that of closer ties to Europe. Boris Tadic, leader of the Democratic Party (DS) and the Pro-EU candidate, victoriously garnered 39 percent of the vote in what was headlined in CNN as a “shock election win”.

The trailing opposition included; Serbian Radical Party (SRS) acting leader, Tomislav Nikolic receiving 28 percent, Vojislav Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) (DSS-NS coalition) with 11 percent, a rather surprisingly high tally of 8 percent for Slobodan Milosevic’s former party, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) (SPS-PUPS-JS coalition), and lastly the party which has welcomed Kosovo’s independence, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), receiving 5.3%.

Tadic will have up to 90 days to form a coalition government, and amidst warnings and doubt by the nationalists regarding Tadic’s victory, this coalition will in all likelihood occur in favor of Tadic and Serbia’s “Pro-EU camp”. The question is, since Milosevic’s former party gained 8 percent, will they be willing to cross ideological boundaries to become a kingmaker in a Pro-EU Tadic led coalition? This is in fact very possible and may even remove some of the bad stigma and the legacy of Slobodan Milosevic that the Socialist Party of Serbia has had to live with.

Another possibility which would truly represent a Pro-EU camp is a coalition including the LDP. The LDP leader, Cedomir Jovanovic, is an ideal coalition partner for two main reasons. First, he has accepted a pre-requisite to a Pro-EU stance for Serbia, Kosovo’s independent irreversible status. Second, Jovanovic’s experience in the arrest of Milosevic may be enlightening in fulfilling another obstacle in the road to the EU; pursuing the handover of Karadzic, Mladic, and other infamous war crimes fugitives.

An eventual “true Pro-EU coalition” including the LDP, or accepting the reality of Kosovo’s statehood should see a steady shift of the sphere of influence over Serbia from Moscow to Brussels. It will hopefully be a shift from the older political leaders of the Milosevic era to a new more open-minded and forward looking political leadership and ideology. Surely Tomislav Nikolic still holds some ties to this regrettable era when he mentions, “Milosevic was not a criminal, but he made a lot of mistakes,” an obvious understatement for a man [Milosevic] responsible for the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the ethnic cleansing and massacring of Bosnians, Croatians, and Kosovars alike.

Quite possibly the most important shift will be from what Serbia “was” to what Serbia “could be”. Unfortunately Tadic’s rhetoric in his statements declaring victory still included the now archaic mentioning of Kosovo as a part of Serbia. Over 70% of the EU he seeks to partner with accepts the reality  of the independent Republic of Kosovo, other EU countries do so in practice through their EULEX involvement, and the rest are sure to join in their acceptance with further development of Kosovo’s sovereignty.

What were the implications of the Serbian election itself on neighboring Kosovo? To begin with, the election was a compromising of Kosovo’s political institutions and authorities with Serbian local elections allowed to occur. Although dual citizenship was rightfully respected in the elections, parallel institutions to those of Prishtina do not represent the will of the majority inhabitants of Kosovo, and the concept of holding such elections in a foreign state is unheard of and illegal. Sure these elections and votes were “not recognized” by the Kosovar government, UNMIK, and the international community but they did happen. These elections can perhaps be blamed on the current unclear political atmosphere in the Republic of Kosovo which allows for unacceptable happenings such as Serbian local elections in foreign states.
 
Thus, it seems that a shift in Kosovo is necessary as well, that is, from the current foggy political atmosphere to clearer and stronger emphasis on Kosovo’s government in Prishtina. Europe’s signal to Belgrade was clear, they said “join us”, and Serbia is likely to do just that. Europe should now be clear with Prishtina, as the United States has, and say “now, it’s your turn”. The European Union and its member nations must ensure a government in Prishtina with a more dignified sovereignty, once the Kosovar government has that; they can continue with their own process of Euro-Atlantic integration. Will a new European orientation for Serbia now mean clarity for Europe towards the Kosovars? Let’s hope for that from Europe, and no alternative.

Comments (13)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Alexa said:

... My dear bluerose799, First of all, you're welcome. Second, since you are little bit into statistics, and being professional statistician myself, I feel obliged to draw your attention to the couple of minor mistakes you made. (apart from the fact that standard deviation couldn't be calculated the way you tried to do). The metod you tried to use to calculate "accuracy level of your information", could be applied only if exact figures were not at someones disposal, thus it is applicable only when you try to predict something (election results, percentage of damaged products, etc.), by using one of various STATISTICAL SAMPLING metods. When you have the exact numbers at your disposal, such as the number of the seats in the Serbian parlament, you can use statistics just to calculate plane percentages and nothing else. Since the exact number of the seats in the Serbian parlament is very well known (250 - majority: 126), the "accuracy level of your information", could be calculated not by statistical, but ONLY by the TAUTOLOGY metod - i.e.: you know exact number - TRUE (1), you don't know exact number - FALSE (0). Since you obviously don't know the exact number of the seats, then "accuracy level of your information" equals FALSE, i.e. 0. Of course, all those tiny-whiny mistakes you made, and your feeble attempt to cover them by wrong use of the statistics, doesn't mean by any chance that I'm implying that the "your accuracy level" is questionable and that it has any impact on your credibility, especially with the respect to the other figures you stated in your post, which are far more provable then the exact number of the seats in the Serbian parlament. At the end, even I didn't quite catch what did you mean by your last sentence, I would be grateful if you could provide me with more reliable sources, since I couldn't guarantee the accuracy of the figures I posted (error is about ± few millions). That was because I used just EU and USA sources. If you could provide me with the ethnic Dardanian sources, I am quite sure that we will come up with the pretty accurate numbers. That would be very useful since I am in the middle of the project of exposing atrocities that evil, so-called Democratic regime in Belgrade - which only purpose of existance is causing troubles in the Balkans and destroying Western civilisation - committed against Romania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Macedonia, Greece, Turkey and especially Albania (all in all, the whole Balkans), with the specific intention of exercising genocide and ethnic cleansing.

report abuse vote down vote up

May 24, 2008
Votes: +0

bluerose799 said:

... Dear ALEXA, Thank you, for providing me the right number of the sits 126. My information 127 seats, was only one seat off. Calculating my credibility for the mean=126 seats and the deviation 1 seat, result in a 0.8% deviation, (i.e., in the range Xavg ± 3 sigma ) this is called a 99.2% confidence interval. With your comment, if 126 seats are true, you admitted the accuracy level of my information as (pretty good). The numbers provided on your post, which can be verified and you couldn’t take back, tarnished your credibility.

report abuse vote down vote up

May 23, 2008
Votes: +2

Alexa said:

... I must strongly object the false figures bluerose799 posted! In the last decade of the 20th Century Serbia didn't wage 4, but 234 wars resulted in more then 137 574 832 dead and more than 243 000 000 homless. Serbian strongmen Milosevic, using Brasilian populism, Russian nationalism, Chinese communism and Indian whatever (in short - Slavic socialism), raised to power exploiting anti-everyone racism. By the spring of 1998, his paramilitary, parapolice and paragliding forces occupied province of Kosmet - in which, throughout whole History of the mankind up to that time, there was not a single Serb living - and which never was a part of Serbia, but from 1912 (when it was brutally separated from Turkey), up to the 2008 was integral part of USA . Milosevic used occupation to populate that territory by about 28 million Serbs and to build 3 000 000 ortodox chuches and monasteries, and at the same time, his forces expelled more than 38 and a half million ethnic Dardanians, and about 4 ethnic Albanians. In that action, his forces killed more than 12 000 UNARMED CIVILIANS and about 14 million ARMED CIVILIANS, raped more than 28 000 000 women, and kidnapped about 4 million people - which were brutally used for organ trafficking (fortunately it won't be investigated by ICTY). At the end, they destroyed or damaged over 119,856 houses and seriously damaged the economy of Kosmet - which was at that time at its peak. Stunned with that amount of brutallity, EU and USA didn't came to act properly, so they just implemented mild econommic sanctions against Serbia, and lauched not so successful airstrikes - which killed just 3000 men, women and children, destroyed just a few bridges and factories, and left no traces on Serbian economy and population. Outraged by Milosevic's weakness & defeats, so-called serbian Democratic forces overthrew him in the elections in 2000, just to took over his nationalism and rose it on higher levels. They successfully defrauded EU, which didn't manage to recognize that they were far worse then Milosevic himself. Therefore EU turned a blind eye to the 127 wars which so-called serbian Democratic forces waged against Kosmets Dardanians from 2000 to 2008, in which tens of millions ethnic Dardanians were killed, abducted and raped. Those events led to the rightful Dardanian uprising, on March 17. 2004, during which they tried peacefully to explain to the remainiing Serbs that there was no reason for fighting eachother, since they were good friends and neighbours. In the meantime, the evil Democratic regime in Belgrade continued to lie Serbs which left in Kosmet, that Dardanians were they archenemies. At the same time they ploted evil plan how to destroy EU and whole Western civilisation. They signed secret energy deal with Russian state monopoly Gazprom, which was written only in Russian, Chinese, Portuguese and Sanskrit since Serbs were very well known as fluent in those languages. And the main goal of this secret deal is to leave EU to freeze to death, during long winter months. After all those facts stated above, one could draw just one conclusion: Serbs did all those killings, rapings and abductions - and now they are ploting all those evil plans to destroy Western civilisation, just because they want to cause troubles in Balkans. So, you must warn EU ASAP - since they are obviously blind as bats since they sign SSA with Serbia - what a frightful destiny is awaiting them in the near future, if they continue not to punish Serbia because evil Democratic regime in Belgrade doesn't want to recognize UDI (of Albanians? Dardanians? Kosovars? Kosovans?). Oh, yes. Just one more thing... Majority in Serbian parlament is 126 seats - not 127.

report abuse vote down vote up

May 22, 2008
Votes: -1

bluerose799 said:

... The “reality” of Serbia yesterday was: The Slavic Socialism enabled the Serbia, under the Milosevic regime, to rise to power on a platform of anti-Albanian racism, to brutally occupy Kosova for ten years, and to wage four wars of conquest in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, and Kosova that left more than 350,000 dead and more than two million homeless. Serbia's military, paramilitary and police forces killed over12,000 unarmed civilians, raped approximately 20,000 women, kidnapped over3,000 people, a considerable number of whom are still missing, destroyed or damaged over 119,855 houses and seriously damaged the economy of our country. Serb forces have forcibly expelled near 1,000,000 Albanian Kosovars from KOSOVA. (Around 90 % of the population are ethnic Dardanian, Serbian population accounted for 7 %. Serbian are surprised why the world community didn’t praise them for these actions and didn’t gave them a pat on the back. The reason was that: Serbia was the troublemaker of the Balkans and the spearhead of a Slavic aggression that slowly but surely trend to move toward the west. The “reality” of Serbia today is uncertain: The EU's troubles in the Balkans don't end there. The EU falsely claimed to have won the elections in Serbia, which took place on the 11th May. Although the party that supports EU membership being given priority over the issue of Kosovo, won 39% of the vote, their coalition is unlikely to achieve a majority, which needs 127 seats in the Serb Parliament. It is more likely that the Nationalists will ally with the Socialists and form the next government, and block entry to the EU in favor of a long-term alliance with Russia and possibly other members of the BRIC. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/world/europe/23serbia.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss Russia’s Gazprom Takes Control of Serbian Oil Monopoly. The contract was written only in the Russian language. Serbian understands very well Russian. http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/22/europe/energy.php Serbia deal tightens Russia's grip on European energy. The “reality” of Serbia tomorrow: The “reality” of Serbia for tomorrow is uncertain too. Serbia has the right to cooperate and collaborate with any nation they want, but understanding the past I can make a prediction for the future. I fear that Serbia will create troubles in the Balkans in the future too. Serbia will be the spearhead of BRIC Coalition expansion toward the EUROPE.

report abuse vote down vote up

May 21, 2008
Votes: +1

Alexa said:

... I must say that I am a little bit disappinted. I have sent couple of comments in a last week, but they never appeared on this pages. I thought that kind of censorship was characteristical just for the Serbian media such as B92 and Blic, but as I could see, you were not immune to this kind of stuff, too. One could not conduct an honest dialogue with his counterparts, if there is someone who act not as a moderator but as a censor. Nevertheless, I will try to post once again, and if this comment does not appear on the page, I'll give up. First of all, your calls on "reality" are weak and feeble. As I already said in one of my previous posts, "reality" is not constant, but ever-changing category. So, if you have one "reality" today, tomorrow you could have something completely different. The other thing - I couldn't agree more with Rosebud - "Kosovars exist if they feel like it". That's true. But, my question is: What if they DO NOT feel like it? Do they exist then? If Albanians want to become Kosovars (or Kosovans, or whatever), that's OK by me. I DO want to be tolerant and don't want to deny anyone's right to feel and call themself as they like it. But if Serbs, Romas, Gorans, Montenegrans, Macedonians, Egyptians, etc.., don't want to become, and be called as Kosovans - noone, in the whole wide world, hasn't got any right to call them by that name, and deny them one of their basic human rights - to be what they want to be! So, in that light, new ethnic division in Kosmet, instead Albanians, Serbs, Romas, Macedonians, etc..., will be: Kosovans (or Kosovars, or whatever), Serbs, Romas, Macedonians, Montenegrans, Gorans, etc... Secondly - the name. Once again, I don't have anything against your whish to call Kosmet as Kosovo (or Kosova, or whatever). That is your right. But, why do you have that ugly urge to deny me my right to call that teritorry as KOSMET? Does that mean that you think I have less rights than you? If that is the case, then your calls upon tolerancy are passe.

report abuse vote down vote up

May 19, 2008
Votes: -1

Alexa said:

... My dear Albanian friends, First of all, you must agree between yourself how do you want to call the territories on which you live in - "Kosovo" (as John said) or "Kosova" (as Alexej said). And, of course, again you must agree on the term you want to use for Albanian people who lives in Albanian territories in Kosmet - are they Kosovans of Kosovars? You may decline that your mother-tongue is ALBANIAN. You may also deny the fact that there is official ALBANIAN STATE FLAG on the streets of Kosmet's towns and villages. All of that would not deny the FACT that you people, still don't have your NATIONAL anthem. So, if you don't want to call yourself Albanians - that is your problem, not mine. As far as I am concerned, you may call yourself anyway you like. Secondly - you can't deny anyone the right to call Serbian territory by its name: KOSOVO AND METOHIA - in short Kosmet. And also, you can't deny the right of the Serbian people in Kosmet to to feel as Serbs and thust to call themself by the name of the SERBS. (the same goes for the Romas, Gorans, Egyptians, Montenegans, Macedonians etc...), unless you are not FASCISTS. And, you are not fascists, aren't you?

report abuse vote down vote up

May 18, 2008
Votes: -1

Sebaneau said:

... What is striking is that so many Serbs, after they tried to destroy the state which Kosovo was according to the Yugoslav Constitution of 1974, actually believe that this act of violence and constant denial thereafter, could change the political consciousness of its inhabitants. To be sure, thay also tried to deny the historical realities of Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina as they attempted to destroy both states. But this only spawned dozens of specialists who, for the first time perhaps since the time of Garašanin, learned an institutional history of the region which was not predominantly influenced by a Serb viewpoint. As a consequence, the Serb nationalists' continued denial of other nations' existence and rights now only serves to discredit them and thwart their aims.

report abuse vote down vote up

May 15, 2008
Votes: +6

John said:

	... Dear Alex, This is pointless argument but nevertheless its nessesary for somebody to explain to you some real facts about Kosovo. The state is call KOSOVO and not KOSMET like you call in your imaginative mind. And people that live in KOSOVO are called KOSOVARS.
	report abuse vote down vote up

May 15, 2008
Votes: +3

rosebud said:

	... Dear Alexa, Are you again showing your true colors by telling people what they are and how they should feel. Kosovars exist if the feel like it. You can not change that. You should learn to be tolerant at last and get a grip with reality. GET IT.
	report abuse vote down vote up

May 15, 2008
Votes: +4

alexej said:

	... Dear ms. Alexa, Inspite of your "sweet-talk", it would be very nice if you try to follow the facts. And the FACT is that, there is NO such thing as 'kosmet'. There is only Kosova. And, of course, her people. Kosovars. Byebye
	report abuse vote down vote up

May 15, 2008
Votes: +2

Sebaneau said:

... http://www.helsinki.org.yu/infocus_t03.html Convincing victory of the pro-European political option Sonja Biserko, President of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia, 12 May 2008 The key result of snap parliamentary, local and provincial elections held on the 11th of May 2008 in Serbia is an unexpected and convincing victory of the Coalition for European Serbia spearheaded by President Boris Tadić. The Democratic Party won 103 seats, [Nikolić and Šešelj’s] Serb Radical Party got 77 seats, the Coalition of [Koštunica’s] Democratic Party of Serbia and New Serbia won 30 seats, the Socialist Party of Serbia-Association of Retirees of Serbia got 20 seats, the Liberal Democratic Party [of Čedomir Jovanović] got 13 seats, the Hungarian Coalition won 4 seats, Bosniaks got 2 seats and the Albanians of the Preševo Valley got 1 seat. Three key factors contributed to such an electoral outcome: the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU, the decision by the Italian company FIAT to sign a preliminary agreement on co-operation with Kragujevac-based car plant ZASTAVA and perhaps, most decisively, the general mood of electorate which suddenly became very – rational. The above-mentioned result is in fact a great triumph for the Democratic Party which for the first time since its inception has become the strongest parliamentary party, thanks primarily to its recent tilt to a pro-European stance. In fact, during its cohabitation with the Democratic Party of Serbia, the Democratic Party nearly lost its identity, forged by Dr. Zoran Đinđic. Presidential elections held in early 2008 demonstrated that Boris Tadić emerged victorious only thanks to his tilt to the pro-European option, and his distancing from the populist camp. Such a shift gained utmost importance after the signing of the SAA. It bears underscoring that Boris Tadić rejected the possibility of the SAA signing only a month ago, for he deemed such an act tantamount to an EU interference into Serbian internal affairs. However, his last-minute change of heart in that regard was a great step forward as well as a turnaround, in view of the totality of the Serb political context and mood. The SAA additionally galvanized support for the pro-European option. The Citizens' fear of a victory of the Radical Party and the closing of economic prospects for Serbia also played an important role in yesterday's parliamentary elections outcome. Namely, many economic experts were predicting Serbia's return to the Nineties, that is hyperinflation, a squandering of the state foreign currency reserves and citizens'savings for meeting social needs, as announced by the Radical Party campaign. The first, post-election statements of Boris Tadic indicate his resolve to continue along the pro-European pathway. But, in parallel Tadic has not renounced his five principles, on which the policy of the former government rested. One of those principles is that Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia. And that principle will be most problematic in relations between the Democratic Party and the EU. Tadic will use that principle, which is backed by the Serb Academy of Arts and Sciences to insist on partition of Kosovo according to a 12:88 ratio. In parallel, one may expect tensions because of the DP's problematic stance on Republika Srpska. Namely, in the last week of his campaign Boris Tadic visited Republika Srpska in a bid to get across to citizens the message that for Serbia Republika Srpska was still important. Milorad Dodik openly backed Tadić and the Democratic Party in the last election. Under the leadership of Tomislav Nikolić the Serb Radical Party reached its peak, but this time around also failed to win the elections, which obviously increased the frustration of that party and its leader. Hence his threatening statement, in the immediate aftermath of disclosure of election results, that the Serb Radical Party would form the government with the Democratic Party of Serbia and the Socialist Party of Serbia, did not come as a surprise. Nikolić thus sharply responded to the post-election statement by Boris Tadić to the effect that «I shall not allow the formation of a coalition without DP, for it would be a return to the Nineties.“ Though in its campaign the Serb Radical Party urged a social state and reliance on Russia's backing, it failed to convince the Serb citizens of its ability to keep its promises.

report abuse vote down vote up

May 15, 2008
Votes: +1

Sebaneau said:

... The Democratic Party of Serbia has fared ill. The Democratic Party of Serbia-New Serbia Coalition won 11.3% of votes (or 30 seats) which indicates a continuing decline in its popularity rating. Vojislav Koštunica's campaign amply manifested his fanaticism and his virulently anti-European stance. His campaign was exclusively based on the slogan «Kosovo is Serbia.». By dint of the Kosovo issue he tried to mobilize national feelings to bolster his uncertain political future. However it turned out that Kosovo was not in fact such «a glue», notably when citizens were offered other options, especially the EU one. Though the key media were controlled by the Democratic Party of Serbia (Radio Television Serbia, the daily Politika, tabloids, etc.) it turned out that such an orchestrated anti-European media campaign was not sufficient to ensure Kostunica's success. That failure happened despite the fact that the whole conservative camp stood behind Kostunica, namely part of the Serb Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Serb Orthodox Church and numerous tycoons (to ensure their positions they financially backed all the political options!), that is, all those still adhering to the idea of the Greater Serbia project. Large part of the academic elite backed Kostunica-engineered concept of «neutral Serbia with reliance on Russia.». The energy deal with Russia was devised as a counterpoint to the point of the EU's SAA, but as it turned out, it was obviously not- a winning card. Čedomir Jovanović's Liberal Democratic Party won 5.4% of votes, which was less than expected, but nonetheless helped that young party cross the threshold once again and thus prove that it had a stable pool of voters. Essentially Čedomir Jovanović is a moral victor in the last election, for thanks to his urging and engagement the tilt to the pro-EU option was effected and issues once raised by Zoran Đinđic were tackled again. Jovanović has acted as a principal «corrective» on the Democratic Party since the assassination of Prime Minister Đinđic [in March 2003] and he is to be fully credited for the Democratic Party's recent re-embracing of the pro-European option. The results of the May elections have a strategic impact on, and importance for both Serbia and the region. Serbia has in fact thus crossed the threshold which enabled it to enter an utterly different context. The Stabilization and Association Agreement finally ensured the framework which could jump-start a genuine transition in Serbia and also paved the way for the entire Serbian society to assume responsibility for its future. Prospects opened by the EU are the only genuine mobilizing force which had amply manifested its reach and effects in other post-Communist societies. Civil society (or part thereof ) played a key role in lobbying for an early signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement, that is the SAA's signing before the handing-over of Ratko Mladić. The principal argument in the pro-SAA signing campaign was that the pressure piled by the Hague Tribunal was grist to the mill of Koštunica’s anti-EU stance. Vojislav Koštunica is a representative of the Serb radical nationalism which the West failed to recognize as such in time. Only after the signing of the SAA was he totally unmasked. The active EU's role continues to be of primary importance for further developments in Serbia, for it has become evident there is no alternative to the mobilizing force of the EU. EU foreign policy must be more coordinated and more concrete in providing direct help not only to the government, but also to civic society and other pro-European oriented segments of the society (such as small and medium enterprizes). The electorate has proved to be more mature than the political class and should therefore be directly supported in order to enhance the pressure on the government to take more decisive steps towards SAA goals. Serbia cannot be democratized without EU backing, and moreover the overhaul of the Serbian Army was/is not possible without its partnership with NATO. The US should also continue to play the role in Serbia, primarily by finalizing the independence of Kosovo and the full integration of Bosnia.

report abuse vote down vote up

May 15, 2008
Votes: +1

Alexa said:

	... Dear Mr. Gashi, Inspite of your "sweet-talk", it would be very nice if you try to follow the facts. And the FACT is that, in Kosmet, there are NO KOSOVARS! There are only ALBANIANS and Serbs. And, of course, other nations such as Romas, Gorans, Egyptians, Montenegrans, etc...
	report abuse vote down vote up

May 14, 2008
Votes: -5