Serbia will continue to follow the same policy concerning Kosovo regardless of the fact that the new government is mostly run by pro-European political parties and Vojislav Koshtunica in not in power anymore, says Dusan Janjic, an influential Serb analyst.

 

He evaluates the fourth government of Serbia, formed after the fall of Slobodan Milosheviq, "as one of the weakest from the political composition, human resources and strategic orientation of its political partners included in the coalition."  

The change towards Kosovo of course is impossible, says Janjic. "It is absolutely impossible and illogical to expect that Serbia government will have a new strategy or policy towards Kosovo," said Janjic.

The rejection of the Serbia authorities to meet with the new UNMIK chief, Lamberto Zannier, is viewed by Janjic as a lack of willingness of Serbia's leadership. "The fact that they [Serbia government] have rejected a meeting, explains that Serbia is still strongly holding onto the stance to not recognize the independence of Kosovo. There is a problematic political faction that considers every contact with the international community as recognition of independence," says the Serb analyst.  

The Serb political analyst also believes there is another reason to reject the meeting with UNMIK chief by Serbia government, "because Serbia does not want to give the impression that it is normalizing relations with a part of the international community, especially before the UN Session on Kosovo, which will take place on July 25th."

“Another reason is that Serbia does not agree with the reconfiguration of UNMIK because simply neither does Moscow. And Serbia president, Tadic, is not  quite independent from Russia when it comes to the issue of Kosovo,” stresses Janjic.

The north of Kosovo, which has a large ethnic Serbian populace, "will turn into an arena of clashes between Serbs because of political and financial reasons," says Janjic. He adds that Goran Bogdanoviq, the new so-called Minister for Kosovo appointed by the new Serbia government and Oliver Ivanoviq whom is speculated to be tagged as a secretary in this portfolio, are expected to run the illegal parallel structures; however, other illegal parallel structures will remain in the hands of radical party and Koshtunica's party, Marko Jakshiq and Milan Ivanoviq.

"It is very difficult to decide which Serb fraction is going to be politically stronger, however we should not forget that the radical and Koshtunica fractions are going to control the so called 'Serb municipality assembly', other municipal illegal structures and most importantly the large amount of money they have received from Belgrade. I expect to see conflicts between Kosovo Serbs getting worse as time passes by. In the first round there will be no winners. However, it is difficult to be able to conclude who is going to win this battle in the long term. Most of the clashes between each other are going to focus mainly on financial deals, on who is profiting what." 

Regarding the issue of Serbia asking the International Court to review the legality of the Kosovo act of independence, the Serb analyst, Dusan Janjic says that “the whole idea, initiated by Tadiq and Koshtunica, is to prolong and delay the current course of the irreversible act of Kosovo independence. The fact that Serb Foreign Minister, Vuk Jeremiq, pushes this idea is another reason to show the Serbian public that [they] tried everything. Furthermore, International Justice Court does not have a legal say on an act that was not decided by General Assembly or Security Council. Basically, this neither does have any relevance nor does it affirm any practical help on this issue."

The Serb analyst is confident that the number of recognitions is going to increase significantly as it was foreseen at the time of declaration of Kosovo independence. "When a country like Kosovo has powerful allies and supporters, assertively the number of diplomatic recognitions is going to progress in a more gradual fashion. Not sure whether 100 countries will recognize Kosovo by the end of this year, but certainly the number is going to be close to that," concludes Janjic.