New Kosova Report

Analyst: South Ossetia is not related to Kosovo

Wednesday, 13 August 2008

Janusz Bugajski, Senior Fellow at the influential Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and expert on Kosovo and post-Sovier space, has stated that parallels should not be drawn between the current military action by Moscow in Georgia and the way the Kosovo crisis was resolved.

"I believe Russia would have intervened in Georgia no matter what happened in Kosovo. Even if the Kosovo status was not resolved, I don't think Russia would have waitied longer to let Georgia take control of South Osetia," Bugajski stated during an interview with Voice of America.

According to Bugajski, with its military intervention in Georgia, Rusia has concluded that this is the best way to split up Georgia and prevent its entry in NATO -- or even to take down its government, cause its destabilization, destroy its military capacities and reawaken the Russian sphere of influence in the region.

Bugajski considers that the West should send a clear message that Moscow cannot be the guarantor of peace in Georgia. He added that the UN, United States and the EU should request the creation of a peacekeeping force within which there would be no Russian units.

Former Yugoslav Foreign Minister Goran Svilanoviq has also said that there are no parallels between Kosovo and South Osetia, because of differing circumstances, adding that South Ossetia is another proof that UN is not the place to resolve conflicts but Brussels.

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Amer said:

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Brussels right now, after the Russian invasion of Georgia, must be considering just how eager it should be to invite Serbia to join the EU if this is going to mean allowing Russia in through its participation in the Serbian economy (NIS)l. Until there is a solution to the alternative-energy problem, one of the few levers the West has over Russia is the power to exclude it from full participation in the world's economy (listing/delisting its companies on the London and NY stock exchanges, favorable trade agreements as a WTO member, direct investment in Europe and the US, ...).

It would be better perhaps to slow-walk Serbia's/Russia's EU application for a while until Russian intentions become clearer (and the world's need for its hydrocarbons becomes less), otherwise Brussels will become just another arena, like the UN, for conflicts between Russia and the EU/US.